The time period “Common Joe” refers to somebody who’s extraordinary and doesn’t possess any qualities that make them exceptional, memorable, or distinctive. The time period “cup of Joe” is a standard solution to discuss with a cup of espresso. Nevertheless, the way in which shoppers are more and more preferring their cup of joe is something however common or fundamental.
Kelsey Girard, senior food and drinks analyst at Mintel, Chicago, shares that the U.S. espresso market continues to face volatility in provide chains and pricing, whereas shoppers grapple with overarching ranges of uncertainty.
“Espresso stays a staple for beverage shoppers, but the beverage is changing into extra about selection and ritual slightly than a monotonous beverage that continues to be the identical every day,” she says.
Mitch Madoff, head of retail partnerships at New York-based Keychain, notes the market is rising, but in addition getting more and more fragmented.
“Chilly brew, espresso drinks, and specialty codecs are pushing the class in new instructions, particularly amongst youthful shoppers who worth selection and comfort,” he says. “On the similar time, manufacturers are feeling stress from rising prices and provide challenges forcing a rethink on every part from sourcing to product combine.”
Regardless of inflation, Madoff states that demand for espresso stays robust, and that espresso continues to be one of the resilient classes within the retailer.
Sally Lyons Wyatt, world government vice chairman and chief advisor of CPG and foodservice at Circana, Chicago, shares insights on the U.S. espresso market from a gross sales perspective.
Within the 52 weeks ending July 13, Wyatt notes that the espresso class has elevated in unit gross sales by 2.1% and in greenback gross sales by 6%.
“As well as, upticks in gross sales have been realized by ready-to-drink (RTD) chilly brew (plus 14.4% models) and refrigerated espresso (plus 5.1% models) as properly,” she says. “We’ve, nonetheless, seen a slowing of gross sales YTD [year-to-date] 2025. Complete espresso unit gross sales are plus 0.4% with prompt, single cup, and chilly brew espresso rising.”
Espresso components, flavorings, and entire beans are also rising this 12 months, Wyatt provides.
“These developments present adjustments in selection, however not the truth that espresso remains to be throughout the consideration set for shoppers as they search drinks,” she says. “That is additional seen through espresso consumption events. Customers who purchase RTD espresso nonetheless eat conventional espresso.”
Based on Circana Path to Consumption, Wyatt says 86% of espresso consumed amongst RTD shoppers is conventional brewed espresso.
She describes the patron developments influencing the espresso class, noting the number of espresso varieties offers choices all through the day.
“Conventional espresso is more likely to be included in morning meal events than specialty espresso, and specialty espresso is extra prone to be included in all different daypart events than conventional espresso, based on Circana Path to Consumption,” Wyatt explains. “Social media is having a big effect on espresso by offering schooling and enjoyable concepts which are resonating with shoppers. Some concepts and/or experiences can vary from recipes or potential choices at espresso outlets to concepts for in-home consumption.”
She factors to examples equivalent to Cloud Espresso and practical coffees with components like collagen, adaptogens (ashwagandha), mushrooms (lion’s mane, chaga), and nootropics.
“There are practical coffees that increase immunity, psychological readability, and pores and skin well being,” Wyatt notes. “There are additionally espresso influences like Alex Moe with 1.2 million Instagram followers [and] Dina Kalanta with 1.3 million Instagram followers [and] 6.1 million followers on TikTok. Lastly, model collaborations are a success with shoppers.”
This may very well be a model collaborating with a well-liked affect but in addition co-branding with one other model, she provides.
Earlier this 12 months, “Stranger Issues” actress Millie Bobby Brown expanded her Florence By Mills Espresso line by partnering with Collab Espresso. The RTD iced lattes launched completely at Walmart.
Mintel’s Girard explains that shopper preferences are altering the espresso panorama.
“Total, diversifying preferences for espresso drinks proceed to play a powerful function out there,” she notes. “Youthful generations are shifting the panorama by way of espresso beverage selections, leaning into hot and cold selection and taking customization (e.g. use of cream, creamer) even additional.”
Keychain’s Madoff says that customers aren’t simply reaching for caffeine, they’re reaching for espresso that aligns with their life-style.
“Which means cleaner components, moral sourcing, and practical advantages like focus and immunity,” he explains. “RTD is main the way in which with chilly brews and canned lattes changing into on a regular basis staples, delivering café-level high quality in codecs that match into shoppers’ busy routines. At-home espresso tradition can be booming.”
Much like Circana’s Wyatt, Madoff mentions that social media has turned morning routines into rituals — and that shift is driving demand for plant-based milks and clean-label creamers.
“We’re seeing manufacturers like MALK and Califia Farms trip that wave, providing merchandise that really feel each premium and private,” he states.
Madoff notes how premium and super-premium developments are affecting the U.S. espresso market.
“Premiumization is now not a distinct segment pattern, it’s shaping the complete class,” he says. “Customers need greater than only a caffeine repair: they’re searching for elevated style, clear components, and a product that feels value paying for. At Keychain, we’re seeing the rising demand for seasonal and limited-edition choices, like Chobani’s Espresso Creamers.”
There are merchandise that borrow cues from the specialty house, Madoff notes. He says to assume upscale branding, practical boosts, and moral sourcing whereas displaying up in on a regular basis codecs.
“Personalization is a giant a part of this, too,” Madoff provides. “From flavored plant-based milks to flavored syrups from manufacturers like Torani, shoppers are customizing their espresso like by no means earlier than.”
Mintel’s Girard says that youthful generations are crafting their very own definitions of premium and super-premium espresso experiences via using espresso equipment, home equipment, and customizations.
“These shoppers are much less seemingly than their older counterparts to personal common drip espresso brewers, and extra prone to personal specialty home equipment and equipment like handheld milk frothers, espresso flavoring syrups, whereas noting robust curiosity in premium home equipment like espresso machines and chilly espresso machines,” she describes.
In different phrases, Girard notes that the premium and super-premium developments would possibly lean extra into preparation than strictly the espresso itself.
“Customers have slowed their spending throughout all sectors, and this consists of meals and drinks,” Circana’s Wyatt says. “Nevertheless, we’re seeing shoppers bifurcating purchases by buying and selling as much as premium and super-premium choices and, in some cases, buying and selling down to non-public model choices. We’re ‘going with out’ based mostly on the slowed spending, however shoppers permit themselves to make ‘inexpensive splurges’ for extra premium and super-premium espresso.”
It’s a good solution to deal with themselves, she provides.
Brewing one thing particular
Regardless of all this innovation throughout the class specialists share that inflation has impacted espresso gross sales.
“We’ve seen acceleration in espresso/tea pricing in 2025 due to ongoing provide volatility,” Circana’s Wyatt notes. “That is impacting some shoppers in regard to what kind of espresso they purchase, how typically, and the place.”
Inflation is shifting shopping for conduct, nevertheless it hasn’t slowed espresso down, Keychain’s Madoff says.
“For most individuals, it’s a each day ritual they’re unwilling to chop. As an alternative, they’re making trade-offers: smaller sizes, fewer café visits or investing in merchandise that improve their at-home cup,” he states. “Keychain information exhibits shoppers are prioritizing worth in a brand new approach. They’re not simply taking a look at value, they’re taking a look at what a product delivers.”
Once more, Madoff notes elements equivalent to practical advantages, clear labels, and moral sourcing, which all play into shoppers’ calculations.
“For manufacturers, meaning discovering methods to ship extra with out including complexity,” he says.
Mintel’s Girard states that the espresso market has skilled risky circumstances in recent times, from pandemic spurred inflationary impacts to provide chain imbalances resulting from local weather change and unfavorable espresso rising circumstances.
“Now, the specter of tariffs looms and is prone to additional affect espresso gross sales and costs,” she says. “When requested about adjustments shoppers would make to their espresso habits if the worth of espresso went up, the most typical change they’d make could be first making espresso extra typically at house.”
Gary Hemphill, managing director of analysis at Beverage Advertising and marketing Company (BMC), Wintersville, Ohio, notes that the general efficiency of the U.S. espresso market has been sluggish.
“Larger costs have impacted efficiency of all beverage classes in recent times, together with espresso,” he says. “Larger costs have meant softer quantity efficiency.”
Among the many varied espresso segments, the specialists be aware that are having essentially the most constructive affect on the class.
Mintel’s Girard says the espresso section that stands out resulting from its progress is that of prompt espresso.
“Prompt espresso has seen a degree of premiumization, just like the launch below premium manufacturers or the launch of modern merchandise (e.g. prompt iced espresso, Starbucks’ Crema Assortment Prompt Espresso) in recent times that has expanded perceptions of this section,” she states. “This section can be particularly accessible, because it requires no particular tools, which will be significantly related for shoppers who don’t at the moment have assets to put money into costly coffee-making tools.”
There are pockets of progress all all through the espresso class, Circana’s Wyatt notes.
“Notable mentions embody power drink manufacturers entering into iced espresso, large and small manufacturers making a mark in chilly brew, and purpose-driven manufacturers resonating,” she says.
In the meantime, Keychain’s Madoff views RTD espresso because the clear standout throughout the class.
“Keychain information exhibits robust progress in chilly brew, canned lattes, and practical blends with components like protein or adaptogens,” he shares. “These merchandise meet shoppers the place they’re, on the go, and supply the premium expertise they need with out the café price ticket. Pods are additionally experiencing regular progress, evolving from fundamental comfort to customized experiences.”
The Boulder, Colo.-based Laird Superfood lately launched its Protein Prompt Latte, a powder-to-latte combine containing 10 grams of protein per serving. The latte combine comes at a time to satisfy demand for protein-packed meals, the corporate says.
Manufacturers like Nespresso supply specialty blends and sourcing transparency, serving to elevate notion and loyalty in a crowded aisle, Madoff provides.
Rising segments equivalent to chilly brew are also affecting the espresso area.
“Chilly brew has opened the door to new shoppers,” Madoff says. “Its clean profile and decrease acidity have made it extra accessible, particularly for youthful crowds. It’s not only a pattern, it’s a format that’s increasing the class.”
Madoff has noticed rising curiosity in codecs like espresso concentrates as properly.
“These merchandise supply customization and portability, checking the containers for comfort and management,” he expresses. “It’s proof that customers are open to reimagining how and once they drink espresso.”
Total, the espresso market has seen diversified tastes translating to demand in numerous classes like RTD and chilly brew, Mintel’s Girard shares.
“Up to now three years, although, gross sales have steadied out a bit within the RTD section (and the espresso market general), following the elevated progress seen throughout the pandemic,” she explains. “Chilly espresso choices like chilly brew have performed a big function in shopper’s diversifying preferences, however selection stays the secret as shoppers look to each hot and cold espresso choices to satisfy completely different events and cravings.”
Circana’s Wyatt feels that rising segments are including exploration, pleasure, and extra events for shoppers who love espresso, but in addition says new varieties hitting the market would possibly enchantment to those that haven’t been espresso shoppers prior to now.
BMC’s Hemphill notes that RTD espresso had been the star of the espresso class up till 2021, when it confronted slowed progress resulting from inflation.
“Improvements like chilly brew espresso and nitro espresso have helped to spice up RTD espresso gross sales,” he shares. “That mentioned, many of the advantages of this innovation has cycled via and is having much less affect on the class in the present day.”
As for what’s brewing within the section’s future, Mintel’s Girard suspects at-home espresso consumption to regain recognition.
“Harking back to the at-home espresso making pattern that boomed throughout the pandemic, shoppers could, as soon as once more, more and more flip to at-home espresso preparation, however this time, seemingly resulting from budgetary causes,” she says. “With espresso costs elevated resulting from provide chain challenges and tariff implications, at-home espresso might be extra shielded than away-from-home choices. Nonetheless, classes like prompt espresso, which mix accessibility, customization, and, in some instances, premiumization, will see paths to progress as shoppers search for methods to take pleasure in espresso inside budgets.”
Segments like roasted espresso and single-cup espresso would possibly see shoppers’ preferences shift inside these segments, Girard notes, as shoppers hunt down promotions and worth manufacturers in some instances.
“RTD espresso might be challenged to keep up its worth equation and supply a pointy value per serving, maybe creating extra alternative for issues like espresso concentrates,” she states.
Circana’s Wyatt shares that, given provide constraints, progress within the espresso class might be hard-earned going ahead.
“Corporations want a complete shopper technique to make sure they hit the mark with product choices, optimum channel distribution, and so on.,” she suggests. “Customers have gotten extra value delicate, so corporations ought to deal with value/pack/cohort structure to verify they’ve dimension and taste varieties that may enchantment to key cohorts.”
Wyatt says innovation might be crucial.
“As shoppers flip to a broader beverage consideration set, espresso manufacturers and retailers might want to stand out and use social media to tell and encourage,” she states. “Faucet into flavors resonating outdoors of house striving to have an inexpensive out-of-home expertise in-home. A few of the current well-liked flavors embody chocolate and peanut butter, oatmeal raisin, and white chocolate caramel.”
Keychain’s Madoff shares premium choices will thrive going ahead.
“In conventional espresso, premiumization will proceed to drive progress,” he says. “Customers are searching for manufacturers which are clear about sourcing and components, and that translate high quality into actual worth.”
Within the RTD espresso section, Madoff feels that the runway is even longer.
“It’s changing into a testing floor for bolder flavors, added performance, and new use events, from morning commutes to post-workout boosts,” he notes. “Keychain information exhibits excessive shopper curiosity in merchandise like La Colombe’s Draft Lattes and selection packs that ship each comfort and novelty.”
Each markets are evolving, Madoff says, however this regular progress highlights a bigger shift: shoppers are keen to seek out new methods to take pleasure in espresso on their very own phrases, whether or not they’re brewing at house or grabbing one thing on the go.
Regardless of the event or location, it seems that manufacturers should ship on shopper wishes to succeed throughout the crowded espresso market.
